Dollar Selloff Resumes after Clearing FOMC Risk, Canadian Powers Up
Dollar's selloff resumed overnight after FOMC risk was cleared. Basically, Fed just reaffirmed it's stance that it's far from considering stimulus exits. Though, for the week so far, Yen is even weaker with strong rebound in global treasury yields. Euro is no far, follow Dollar as third weakest so...
Fed Refrained from Giving Any Hint about QE Tapering
The Fed voted unanimously to leave the Fed funds rate target at 0-0.25%. It also decided to keep the asset purchases at US$120B per month. As expected, the Fed upgraded the economic assessments but continued to warn of downside risks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the press conference noted...
US Crude Inventory Increased, but Less than Expected
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks sank -1.63 mmb to 1285.52 mmb in the week ended April 23. Crude oil inventory climbed higher, by +0.09 mmb (consensus: +0.66 mmb) to 493.11 mmb. Stockpile increased in...
Dollar Staying in Consolidations With Bearish Outlook, FOMC Next
The financial markets are generally steady today as traders are holding their bet ahead of FOMC announcement. US President Joe Biden is set to unveil a USD 1.8T package for family and education, but that's unlikely to trigger much reaction. New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar are currently the...
US Growth and Fed’s Policy Outlook to Lift Yields Again, Lending Support to USD
Weakness of US dollar in most of April has been mainly driven by falling Treasury yields. We believe US’ strong economic growth in coming quarters, market expectations of Fed funds rate hike and the Fed’s plan to taper QE would again lift Treasury yields, lending support to the greenback....
Aussie Tumbles after CPI, Yen Falls as FOMC Awaited
Australian Dollar tumbles broadly in Asian session after weaker than expected CPI data. Sterling is following as the second weakest , and then New Zealand Dollar. Dollar firms up mildly as traders await FOMC rate decision, but the rebound is mainly centered against Yen and Aussie. Indeed, Yen was...
Swiss Franc Mildly Firmer in Subdued Trading
Trading in the financial markets is rather subdued today. Swiss Franc is the stronger one at the time of writing, followed by Dollar and Sterling. Commodity currencies, on the other hand, turn softer with Australian Dollar leading the retreat. But overall movements in the markets are limited. Gold and...
BOJ Downgrades Inflation Forecasts Significantly as It Struggles with Limited Tools
The BOJ left its monetary policy measures unchanged in April. However, it revised sharply lower the inflation forecasts for this fiscal year. The country’s economy has been far below the +2% inflation despite a decade’s unconventional easing measures.
On the economy, the central bank acknowledged that “Japan’s economy has picked...
Canadian Dollar Jumps While Dollar Recovers, Yen Shrugs BoJ
While NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at new records overnight, there is no follow through risk-on buying in Asian session. Investors are generally still cautious ahead of Fed meeting. Dollar recovers in general but upside momentum is very weak. Canadian is extending gains and is now leading other commodity...
Dollar Mixed after Durable Goods Miss, Aussie Leads Commodity Currencies Higher
Overall market sentiments are steady today. Commodity currencies are currently the strongest ones for today so far, as led by Aussie. Dollar is recovering despite weaker than expected durable goods orders. Euro turns after after slightly weaker than expected Germany Ifo business climate. Yen and other European majors are...
Dollar Selloff Extends as Focus Turns to Fed, BoJ, GDP and Inflation
Dollar's decline continues as another week starts as focus turns to Fed and BoJ, as well as a batch of important economic data. . European majors are also soft even though they managed to gain against the greenback. On the other hand, Australian and New Zealand Dollar are firmer...
FOMC Preview – Fed to Deliver Upbeat Message about Economy while Affirming Substantial Progress is Needed to Taper QE
We expect the Fed to turn more upbeat over the economic outlook at this week’s meeting. Yet, the economic improvement is not yet strong enough for any change in the monetary policy measures. As such, the Fed would leave the Fed funds rate target at 0-0.25%. On QE, the...
Dollar’s Near Term Bearishness Persists, Other Currencies Mixed
Dollar ended as the worst performing one last week as near term bearishness persisted. Q1's rebound should have completed and the main question is whether it's ready for new lows. That is, indeed, in favor unless overall risk-off sentiments were choked off by some unexpected events.
The forex markets were...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet Crude Oil Prices to Go Higher
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended April 20, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures gained +7 305 contracts to 499 983 for the week. Speculative long position rose +7 060 contracts, while shorts slipped -245 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH for...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Net Length of CAD Futures Jumped Over 6 Times on Hawkish BOC
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 20, NET LENGTH for CAD futures soared +10 840 contracts to 13 246 contracts, compared with 2 406 contracts a week ago. Speculative longs increased while shorts dropped during the week. A hawkish BOC is...
Dollar in Fresh Selloff, Yen and Euro Strong
Fresh selloff in seen in Dollar as we enter into US session. Euro was lifted earlier today by strong PMIs. But it could be taken over by Yen before weekly close. Mild risk aversion in Europe is keeping Yen afloat. US futures are mixed at the time of writing,...
Yen Firm in Quiet Markets, Bitcoin Free Fall
While US stocks tumbled overnight, Asian markets are just mixed. Gold and oil are stuck in range too, while the bigger move is found in bitcoin. The forex markets are also generally staying in tight range. Yen is currently the strongest one for the week, followed by New Zealand...
ECB Expects Growth to Resume in 2Q21. Yet, PEPP Tapering is Still Premature
As we have anticipated, the ECB left all monetary policy measures unchanged in April. Policymakers indicated the current pace (increased since March) of asset purchases in the PEPP would remain intact. Other monetary policy measures will stay unchanged with the Asset Purchase Program (APP) (traditional QE) at 20B euro/...
Euro Mildly Higher after ECB, But No Upside Breakout Yet
Euro rises mildly after ECB President Christine Lagarde sounded cautiously upbeat in the post-meeting press conference. Yet, there is no clear follow through buying for an upside breakout yet. Dollar is also not much supported by better than expected jobless claims data. The more notable movement today is the...
Euro Mixed Ahead of ECB, Dollar Sellers Await Stock Rally
Canadian Dollar surges broadly overnight after BoC's hawkish tapering. Yet, it's currently still one of the weakest for the week together with Dollar. The post-meeting buying was not enough to turn the Loonie into black against others yet. As for today, markets are rather quiet so far. US stocks...