Sun, Feb 23, 2020 @ 01:34 GMT
japan's inflation has stayed very weak. Despite hopes that the upcoming increase in consumption tax could boost the general price levels, the impact this time is likely limited. Tokyo CPI signals that Japan’s inflation outlook remains dismal.Although consumption tax hike...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended September 3, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +1 839 contracts to 31 336. Speculative long positions rose +6 308 contracts and short positions also added...
OPEC+ stayed put, maintaining the output cut agreed in December last year while pledging to monitor market developments with an option to raise production later. In our opinion, there is no practical need for OPEC+ to officially raise output....
Following Brexit and Donald Trump's victory in US presidential election, the Italian referendum this coming Sunday is the latest event that could cause huge volatility in the financial markets. Indeed, with the "no" camp leading in opinion polls, Italian shares and bonds have underperformed of late. The banking sector has suffered most with the FTSE Italia Banks Index losing almost -9% in November. Italy's FTSE MIB index has fallen -2.65% this month, compared with a -0.74% drop in the pan-European Stoxx600 index. Meanwhile, the 10-year Italian/German yield spread widened to a 1.5-year high of 1.874% last Thursday. The market's key concern is that a "no" vote leading to resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi would trigger massive selloff in bank shares, forcing the debt-ridden Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena to suspend plans for a critical 5B euro capital increase and then making other banks, such as UniCredit, to delay similar plains too. Such risks might be contagious, spreading to other peripheral countries and result in another European financial crisis.
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended October 1, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +1 089 contracts to 43 028. Speculative long positions rose +2 255 contracts and short positions added +1...
Canada and the US eventually reached a preliminary trade deal, named USMCA, just a few hours before the US-imposed negotiation deadline. Obviously, the market was thrilled by the “breakthrough”, evidenced by the rally of Canadian dollar and, to a...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended August 21, NET LENGTH of USD index rose +2 089 contracts for 34 122 contracts for the week. However, this was driven by the decline in...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 24, NET LENGTH in USD Index gained +1 796 contracts to 29 128. Speculative long positions gained +5 766 contracts while short positions added +3...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 26. NET LENGTH in USD Index slipped -487 contracts to 24 138. Speculative long positions fell -2 276 contracts and short positions dropped -1 789...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 17, NET LENGTH in USD Index added +276 contracts to 27 332. Speculative long positions slid -27 contracts while short positions dropped -303 contracts during...
British pound remains under pressure after Friday’s selloff. GBPUSD slumped almost -1% on Friday, resulting in a second consecutive weekly decline of the pair, as weakness in first quarter GDP growth was accompanied with BOE Governor Mark Carney’s dovish...
Risk to Canadian dollar is skewed to the downside in the near term. Disappointing economic data since the July BOC meeting have raised speculations of a rate cut, although the consensus remains no change in the monetary policy for...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended May 7, NET LENGTH in USD Index decreased -716 contracts to 28 233. Both speculative long and short positions fell during the week. All other major...
The market is thrilled by comments from Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator on Brexit, who noted that the EU is “prepared to offer Britain a partnership such as there never has been with any other third country”. We do...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended July 3, bets for US dollar increased modestly on both sides. Speculative long positions for USD Index (DXY) futures added +2 399 contracts while shorts added +1...
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended April 30, NET LENGTH in USD Index increased +194 contracts to 28 949. Both speculative long and short positions gained during the week. All other major...
EURCHF remains in consolidation after briefly breaching 1.2 last Friday. We see policy divergence, US sanctions against Russia and the upcoming referendum on SNB’s power are key reasons for the recent weakness in Swiss franc. Despite the symbolic meaning...
Recent correction does not change our relatively positive outlook over USDJPY this year. Donald Trump's victory at the US presidential election last November triggered sharp rally in interest rates and USD, facilitated by unwinding of USD shorts and opening of USD longs. Despite a pullback after soaring to a recent high 118.66 in mid-December, reflation trades, hinging on the bets that Trump's administration would drive quicker growth and inflation, remain in play and should push USDJPY higher after consolidation. Yield curve targeting announced in September indicates that BOJ would strive to keep the 10-year JGB yields close to its target by buying sufficient amounts of bonds. This, together with the sharp rise in US yields, helps accelerate divergence of Japanese yields from those in the US, pressuring Japanese yen. We do not feel surprised if prices corrects to 110-112 in 1Q17. Rather, it offers a buying opportunity for a resumption of recent rally. Risk to USDJPY's strength is slower-than-expected and/or milder-than-expected implementation of Trump's pro-growth policy.
While it is not a practice for Fed chairs to offer hints on the monetary policy outlook at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, their speeches at the event have always caught market attentions and sometimes move the market. At...
With UK elections approaching in two weeks’ time (December 12), opinion polls suggest that both Conservatives and Labors have consolidated support. Poll of polls indicates that support for Tories have risen to 43% as of November 26. This marks...
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