Markets Consolidate ahead of Weekly Close, Kiwi Stays Strong
Markets turn into consolidative mode today as Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc pare back some gains. Commodity currencies, on the other hand, are generally higher. Traders are taking some profits ahead of weekly close. Nevertheless, over the week, New Zealand Dollar is the strongest ones after RBNZ's surprise hold....
US Crude Oil Stock-Build Exceeded Consensus
The report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that total crude oil and petroleum products (ex. SPR) stocks slumped -5.86 mmb to 1273.57 mmb in the week ended November 8. Crude oil inventory added +2.22 mmb to 446 mmb (consensus: +1.65 mmb). Inventory gained in 3 out...
Yen Higher Following Weakness in Yields, Euro Mixed as Germany Avoided Recession
Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar remain the strongest ones as Asia led risk aversion continues today. Additionally, treasury yields are back under pressure with some downside acceleration after US 10-year yield lost 1.9 while German 10-year yield lost -0.3. On the other hand, Australian Dollar remains the weakest, followed...
Poor Job Data Sends Aussie Lower, Yen Jumps as Risk Aversion Continues
Australian Dollar tumbles broadly today after poor employment data, which suggests RBA is still on track for more easing. Additionally, the Aussie and Kiwi are weighed down by risk aversion in Asian markets. Hong Kong stocks lead others lower again on poor Chinese economic data, and continued unrest in...
China Data Reveal Further Downside Risks in Economy
China’s major economic data in October all missed expectations and slowed from a month ago. Growth in industrial production decelerated to +4.7% y/y, from +5.8% in September. Retail sales growth weakened to 7.2% m/m, compared with +7.8% in September. Part of the reasons can be deferred spending ahead of...
Swiss Franc and Yen Jump on Risk Aversion, Kiwi Maintains Gain
New Zealand Dollar remains the strongest one today as boosted by RBNZ's hold. But risk aversion is picking up momentum and sends Swiss Franc and Yen generally higher. Hong Kong stocks led the global markets lower again as unrest in the city continues. Neither the Hong Kong nor the...
Forex Shrugs Risk Aversion, Kiwi rebounds after RBNZ Hold
Asian stocks are broadly lower today, as lead by free fall in Hong Kong stocks. But the development is largely shrugged off by the forex markets. New Zealand dollar rebound strongly after RBNZ surprisingly stands pat today. Swiss Franc and Euro are following as second strongest. On the other...
RBNZ Unanimously Left OCR at 1%. Rate Cuts Next Yet Still Likely
RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 1% in October. The members acknowledged that inflation stayed below the midpoint of the 2% target and inflation forecasts have declined. Yet, they believe previous monetary easing should lift the price level back to target. Meanwhile, they noted that weakness in exchange rate...
Dollar Higher Awaiting Trump’s Trade Speech, Sterling Pares Gains after Job Data
The financial markets are relatively quiet today. Global stocks are generally higher but gains are limited. Treasury yields are mixed with US benchmark 10-year yield mildly lower while Germany 10-year yield is mildly higher. Dollar is currently the strongest one for today. But the rally attempt is half-hearted. Focus...
Sterling Maintains Gain after Strong Rally, New Zealand Dollar Dives on RBNZ Expectations
Sterling rises sharply overnight and stays firm in Asian session today. The Pound was lifted by improved chance for Conservative win in the upcoming election. Yet, there is no sign of a clear majority for pushing through the Brexit deal. Thus, upside of the Pound is so far limited....
RBNZ Preview – Market Divided over Another Rate Cut Move This Week
The market remains divided over whether RBNZ would lower the OCR this week. Back in August, the market had fully priced in a rate cut of -25 bps. Yet, the central bank surprised with a -50 bps reduction, sending the policy rate to 1%. Currently, the market has priced...
Yen Higher as Hong Kong Leads Risk Aversion
Yen surges broadly today as markets are back in risk averse mode, led by steep decline in Hong Kong stocks. On the other hand, Dollar and Australia are the weakest one for the moment. But some of the moves are consolidative and overall outlook is unchanged. That is, Yen's...
China’s CPI Soared to Highest Level in Almost 8 Years; Exports Improved on Tariff Exemption
Headline CPI in China accelerated further to +3.8% y/y in October. This had exceeded consensus of +3.4% and breached the 3% target for the first time since 2013. Food price, in particular pork price, was again the key driver for the strong inflation. Food inflation soared +15.5% y/y, compared...
Trade Optimism Boosted Stocks, Yields, & Dollar
Trade optimism was the main theme driving the financial markets last week. Investors seemed to be convinced that US and China are close to signing trade agreement phase one, even though it's unsure when and where yet after the APEC summit in Chile was cancelled. Additionally, there were increasing...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on US Dollar Trimmed on both Sides
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 5. NET LENGTH in USD Index slid -1 130 contracts to 28 379. Speculative long positions fell -2 200 contracts and short positions dropped -1 070 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET SHORT for EUR futures...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Remained Bullish in Crude Oil Although Price is at 6-Week High
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 5, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures soared +22 793 contracts to 406 140 for the week. Speculative long positions rose +12 784 contracts while shorts slumped -10 009 contracts. For refined oil products, NET LENGTH...
Dollar Boosted by Yields, Canadian Weighed Down by Job Data
Dollar rises broadly today and it's set to end as the strongest one. Strong rally in treasury yield, with 10-year yield now at 1.95, is giving the green back solid support. Stock futures point to mixed open, but could easily extend recent record run if there is more positive...
Dollar Strong on Trade and Rebound in Treasury Yields
The forex markets are pretty steady in Asian session today, staying inside yesterday's range. Over the week, Euro is currently the weakest one on poor economic outlook, with downgrades by European Commission. New Zealand dollar is second weakest after rise in unemployment rate. Sterling is the third weakest as...
BOE Left Policy Rate at 0.75%. Two Members Voted for Easing
Although the Bank rate stayed unchanged at 0.75% as expected, it is surprising to see two members voted for a rate cut. At the minutes, BOE has left the door open for a rate cut for the first time. British pound slumped as the message came in more dovish...
Sterling Dives as Two BoE Members Voted for Rate Cut, Yen Pressured by Trade Optimism
Sterling drops broadly today after two BoE policy makers surprisingly voted for a rate cut, even though the central eventually stood pat. Following the Pound, Yen is the second weakest as risk appetite returns. Market sentiments were lifted after China said they agreed on phased rollback of tariffs with...