Asia Opens in Risk On Mode, New Zealand Dollar Outperforms
It's the same old story as Asian markets open in risk-on mode. Commodity currencies strengthen broadly, but led by New Zealand Dollar this time. On the other hand, Swiss Franc, Yen and Dollar are the weaker ones, while Euro and Sterling are mixed. Trading could be subdued today with...
FOMC Preview – Cautious about Economic Weakness but Fiscal Stimulus should lend Support
The FOMC meeting in the coming week will not bring any change in the monetary policy. Economic activities have moderated since the December meeting, while resurgence in the coronavirus cases could hurt economic activities more seriously than previously expected. Yet, roll-out of more fiscal stimulus and positive vaccination progress...
Euro Reversed Initial Selloff after ECB, Turning the Corner?
Euro has surprisingly ended as the strongest one last week. While a rebound against Dollar was expected, the turnaround against commodity currency, in a risk-on week, was impressive. Though, as discussed below, the common currency still has a lot to prove. Sterling also overwhelmed New Zealand Dollar slightly and...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Bet on Higher Euro as ECB Shrugged Off its Strength
As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended January 19 NET SHORT of USD Index futures +370 contracts to 14 277. Speculative long positions gained +1 492 contracts, and short positions increased +1 862 contracts. The greenback's correction proves to be short-lived. The ECB...
CFTC Commitments of Traders – Crude Oil Bets Trimmed Sharply on Price Correction
According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended January 19, NET LENGTH for crude oil futures sank -19 133 contracts to 508 584 for the week. Speculative long position slumped -27 482 contracts, while shorts fell -8 349 contracts. As we predicted in last week's...
Dollar Rebounds Broadly as Risk Appetite Recedes
Dollar rebounds broadly today following receding risk appetite. Investors are apparently paring their gains in stocks. Swiss Franc and Euro are the next strongest, followed by Yen. On the other hand, Australian Dollar and Sterling are the worst performing. In particular, the Pound was weighed down by sharp deterioration...
Euro Rebounds Against While Stock Traders Take Profit
The forex markets are reversing some of this week moves today, as stock investors are also taking some profits ahead of the weekend. Euro is the better performing so far, followed by Swiss Franc, Dollar and Yen. Meanwhile, Sterling and commodity currencies are the weaker ones. As for the...
ECB Gets Slightly More Hawkish, Revealing that it might Not Use All of PEPP Envelope
The ECB left its powder dry in January. While continuing to warn of the downside risks on the Eurozone and global economy, the central bank delivered a hawkish tweak about operation of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). On the monetary policy measures, the central bank left the size...
Euro Recovers as ECB Sees Less Pronounced Downside Risk, Dollar Softens after Jobless Claims
Euro recovers mildly in early US session, after ECB said downside risks to the economic outlook are less pronounced. Though, it remains one of the worst performing for the week, together with Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc. The greenback is clearly still under pressure for now, after worst than...
BOJ Downgraded Economic Outlook for FY2020, Inflation to Fare Better During Forecasting Horizon
The January BOJ is non-eventful. Cautioning that risks to the economic outlook is tilted to the downside, the central bank announced to leave all its stimulus measures unchanged. In contrast to speculations, the central bank did not adjust the implicit trading band of the 10-year JGB yield.
There is a...
Euro Vulnerable as ECB Awaited, Strong Risk-On Sentiment Continues
Euro recovers mildly today but stays as one the weakest, along with Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc. Strong risk-on sentiments pushed major US indices to new records overnight. Commodity currencies are generally strong on the sentiments. Canadian Dollar was additionally lifted by the not-so-dovish BoC statement, but it's awaiting...
CAD Extended Rally as BOC Sounded Less Dovish
BOC’s January meeting came in less dovish than expected. While leaving the monetary policy measures unchanged, the central bank has upgraded the economic outlook for 2022. Meanwhile, policymakers hinted QE tapering if confidence over recovery improves. At the meeting, BOC kept the overnight rate at 0.25% and the QE...
Euro Down Again as Recovery Lost Momentum, Commodity Currencies Jump
Euro weakens notably today as recovery momentum diminished quickly. Dollar is not gaining much, though, as commodity currencies trade broadly higher with new wave of buying. Australian Dollar is once again leading others. Canadian Dollar shrugs off weaker than expected inflation reading, and await BoC rate decision and the...
Canadian Dollar in Spotlight, With Eyes on BoC and Oil Price
Canadian Dollar is a main focus today with BoC rate decision featured. Recent strong risk-on markets haven't given the Loonie much lift. It's upside is somewhat capped as oil price turned into consolidation after last week's spike. Also, traders turned cautious before BoC's indication on the chance of a...
Euro Rises While Dollar and Yen Stay Pressured
Yen and Dollar remain the worst performing ones for today with markets generally in risk-on mode. Investors are awaiting US Treasury nominee Janet Yellen's Senate hearing for more information on the her stance on fiscal stimulus and Dollar exchange rate. Though, buying focuses turned from commodity currencies to Euro...
Asian Markets Surge With Strong Risk Appetite, Yen Under Heavy Selling
Asian markets are trading in strong risk-on mode today, with particular strength seen in Hong Kong. DOW future is also currently up 150 pts, as markets look forward to US Treasury nominee Janet Yellen's confirmation hearing. Yen is back under heavy selling pressure, followed by Dollar and Swiss Franc....
ECB Preview – Awaiting More Comments of Strong Euro
While ECB would likely leave its monetary policy measures unchanged this week, the market should focus on several issues: members’ view on recent euro strength, discussions on QE tapering and economic impacts of renewed lockdown. Following the recalibration in December, ECB would leave the size of the Pandemic Emergency...
Commodity Currencies Stay Generally Weak While Euro Could Stabilize Temporarily
Commodity currencies remain generally weak today on mixed market sentiments. On the other hand, Yen, Swiss Franc and Dollar are the strongest. Euro remains soft too, but recovery in crosses, in particular against Sterling, is limiting its downside for the moment. Gold also stabilizes back in prior range after...
EUR/USD Pressing 1.2 Key Support as Dollar Lifted by Yellen
Dollar opens the week generally higher, as supported by comments from former Fed chair Janet Yellen. Though, at this point, Yen mildly stronger while Swiss Franc is also firm. The triple argues that there is some underlying cautiousness in investor sentiments, despite solid Q4 China data. That's also reflected...
BOC Preview – All Eyes on Likelihood of Micro Rate Cut
BOC is widely expected to leave its overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 0.25% in January. The size of asset purchases will also stay unchanged at CAD4B/week. Over the past month, there has been market speculations about the possibility of a micro rate cut since November. While...