Wed, May 28, 2025 @ 10:07 GMT
Facebook Mail RSS Twitter
Live Comments Page 7

Live Comments

Latest

Eurozone core CPI jumps to 2.7% as services inflation accelerates

    By
    ActionForex.com
    -

    Eurozone headline CPI held steady at 2.2% yoy in April, slightly above expectations of 2.1% yoy. CPI core, which excludes energy, food, alcohol & tobacco, surged sharply from 2.4% yoy to 2.7% yoy, surpassing the forecast of 2.5%.

    The acceleration in services inflation to 3.9% from 3.5% drove much of the upside surprise, highlighting persistent domestic price pressures. Meanwhile, energy prices fell more steeply at -3.5%, and non-energy industrial goods inflation was stable at 0.6%.

    Full Eurozone CPI flash release here.

    Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.0, at risk if Chinese exports divert toward Europe

      By
      ActionForex.com
      -

      Eurozone manufacturing sector showed further signs of stabilization in April, with PMI Manufacturing Index finalized at 49.0, its highest reading in 32 months. Output growth was a standout, reaching a 37-month high at 51.5, reflecting a modest but encouraging improvement in activity.

      Country-level data revealed a mixed picture, with Greece (53.2) and Ireland (53.0) leading the expansion, while Spain (48.1) and Austria (46.6) lagged behind. Notably, Germany (48.4) and France (48.2), two core economies, continued to show.

      According to Cyrus de la Rubia at Hamburg Commercial Bank, the stabilization is somewhat unexpected given recent shocks, but optimism is holding up, aided by prospects of ECB rate cuts and the announced increase in EU defense spending.

      Still, challenges remain. While manufacturers expanded margins in April, thanks to falling input costs and faster price hikes, this may not be sustainable. The risk of Chinese goods being redirected to Europe due to US tariffs could intensify competitive pressures, particularly on price.

      Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing final release here.

      Downside risks to NFP after ADP miss and rising Claims

        By
        ActionForex.com
        -

        The US April non-farm payroll report today will serve as a critical barometer of the labor market’s resilience amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty. While the recent flip-flopping of reciprocal tariffs may not yet be fully reflected in the data, other indicators suggest growing fragility.

        A notable miss in today’s report could reignite concerns about recession, particularly following this week’s Q1 GDP data which showed unexpected contraction. For Fed, a disappointing jobs print would increase pressure to resume easing in June.

        Markets expect 130K jobs growth in April, following a much stronger-than-expected 228K gain in March. Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% mom. Unemployment rate likely held steady at 4.2%.

        Recent labor market signals, however, lean toward downside risks. Initial jobless claims surged to 241K last week, pushing the 4-week average up to 226K. Meanwhile, ADP Employment report showed private payrolls rising by just 62K, a sharp deceleration from the revised 147K in March. The ISM Manufacturing PMI Employment sub-index also remained in contraction at 46.2, though it did tick up slightly from 44.7.

        Australian retail sales grow 0.3% mom in March, but volumes flat in Q1

          By
          ActionForex.com
          -

          Australian retail sales rose by 0.3% mom in March to AUD 37.28 billion, slightly below expectations of 0.4% growth.

          According to the ABS, food-related spending, particularly in supermarkets and grocery stores, was the main contributor to the uptick, with food and miscellaneous retailing both rising 0.7%. Clothing-related sales also edged higher, but household goods retailing was flat.

          However, the broader trend is subdued, with retail sales volumes—adjusted for inflation—essentially flat over Q1. ABS Head of Business Statistics Robert Ewing noted that the lack of growth reflects weaker household appetite for discretionary goods, following a boost in spending late last year due to heavy promotions.

          Full Australia retail sales release here.

          US ISM manufacturing falls less than expected to 48.7, output drops, prices climb further

            By
            ActionForex.com
            -

            US ISM Manufacturing PMI edged lower from 49.0 to 48.7 in April, slightly better than expectations of 47.9, but still firmly in contraction territory.

            The report paints a mixed picture beneath the headline: new orders improved modestly from 45.2 to 47.2, signaling tentative stabilization in demand. But production dropped sharply from 48.3 to 44.0, marking the eighth straight month of contraction. Employment remained weak, rising only slightly from 44.7 to 46.5, with job losses continuing across the sector.

            Export activity was a particular drag, with new export orders plunging from 49.6 to 43.1, reflecting growing external headwinds and perhaps early signs of tariff impacts. Imports also fell back into contraction, dipping from 50.1 to 47.1.

            The rise in the Prices Index—from 69.4 to 69.8—marks the highest level since mid-2022 and reflects growing cost pressures, especially from tariffs, which are now being passed through to buyers amid longer supplier delivery times and rising inventories.

            According to ISM, the overall backdrop suggests weakening demand and output amid rising input costs, “not considered positive for economic growth. ISM estimates the current PMI level aligns with a modest 1.8% annualized GDP growth rate.

            Full US ISM manufacturing release here.

            US initial jobless claims rise to 241k vs exp 221k

              By
              ActionForex.com
              -

              US initial jobless claims rose 18k to 241k in the week ending April 26, above expectation of 221k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 5.5k to 226k.

              Continuing claims rose 83k to 1916k in the week ending April 19, highest since November 13, 2021. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6k to 1868k.

              Full US jobless claims release here.

              UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 45.4, rising costs, declining demand

                By
                ActionForex.com
                -

                UK manufacturing continued to contract in April, with PMI finalized at 45.4, a modest rise from March’s 44.9.

                The sector is facing mounting challenges as output, new orders, and exports all declined further. Business confidence also fell to its lowest level since late 2022, reflecting growing unease over global trade disruptions and rising input costs.

                S&P Global’s Rob Dobson highlighted a nearly five-year record drop in new export orders, particularly from the US, Europe, and China.

                Manufacturers are also being squeezed by a surge in purchase price inflation, now at a 28-month high. This is prompting firms to raise prices and cut discretionary spending, reinforcing a troubling mix of “rising costs, declining demand”.

                Full UK PMI manufacturing final release here.

                BoJ’s Ueda: Inflation target delay won’t necessarily postpone rate hikes

                  By
                  ActionForex.com
                  -

                  At the post meeting press conference, BoJ Kazuo Ueda acknowledged that the surge in global trade tensions, sparked by the US’s “reciprocal” tariffs, has sharply elevated uncertainty over global policy direction. He warned that these tariff shocks would “weigh on” on Japan’s growth and inflation in the near term, but expressed hope that such effects would fade as overseas economies stabilize.

                  Ueda noted that BoJ downgraded its growth outlook for fiscal 2025 and 2026, with both inflation and wage gains expected to “likely slow somewhat. However, he maintained that Japan’s “severe labour shortage” should keep the positive wage-inflation cycle intact over the medium term.

                  Despite pushing back the timeline for inflation to converge with the 2% target, Ueda stressed “that doesn’t mean the timing of further rate hikes will automatically be delayed by the same margin.”

                  Ueda emphasized that BoJ’s forecasts hinge on the assumption that trade negotiations will progress and avoid serious supply chain disruptions. However, he admitted that the probability of the baseline scenario being realized “is no longer very high.” Further tariff escalation could alter both the economic outlook and BoJ’s future policy stance.

                   

                  BoJ holds rates, slashes growth outlook on trade headwinds

                    By
                    ActionForex.com
                    -

                    BoJ kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50% today, by unanimous vote, in line with expectations. However, it struck a cautious tone on the economic outlook by sharply cutting its growth forecasts.

                    The central bank now projects Japan’s real GDP to grow just 0.5% in fiscal 2025, down from the 1.1% forecast in January, and 0.7% in fiscal 2026 (downgraded from 1.0%). Growth is expected to recover to 1.0% in fiscal 2027, assuming stabilization in global conditions.

                    In its statement, BoJ acknowledged that “Japan’s economic growth is likely to moderate” as global trade and policy uncertainty weigh on external demand and corporate profitability. Still, the bank expects activity to reaccelerate once overseas economies resume “a moderate growth path.”

                    On inflation, BoJ maintained that price pressures are broadly on course toward the 2% target, but revised its CPI core forecast down from 2.4% to 2.2% for fiscal 2025, and from 2.0% to 1.7% for fiscal 2026.

                    BoJ raised its projection for the core-core CPI from 2.1% to 2.3% for fiscal 2025, reflecting persistent domestic inflation pressures. However, this is followed by a downgrade from 2.1% to 1.8% in 2026 before stabilizing at 2.0% in 2027.

                    Full BoJ’s Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices here.

                    Japan’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 48.7, slump persists amid trade uncertainty

                      By
                      ActionForex.com
                      -

                      Japan’s manufacturing sector remained in contractionary territory in April, with the final PMI reading at 48.7, up slightly from March’s 48.4. While the deterioration in business conditions marked the tenth consecutive month of decline, it remained modest.

                      However, underlying components revealed more concerning trends, with sharper drops in new orders and exports, highlighting persistent demand-side weakness.

                      According to S&P Global, firms responded by scaling back purchasing and adjusting inventories, while overall sentiment worsened.

                      Business confidence around future output fell to its lowest since mid-2020, as companies expressed caution amid ongoing global trade tensions and muted demand. Without a significant turnaround in both domestic and external demand, “firms are likely to struggle to see a recovery in conditions”.

                      Full Japan PMI manufacturing final release here.

                      BoC minutes: Dual uncertainties cloud policy path

                        By
                        ActionForex.com
                        -

                        BoC’s summary of deliberations from its April meeting revealed a divided Governing Council, as members weighed the case for another rate cut against the need for more clarity.

                        While some policymakers pushed for an immediate cut, citing a weakening domestic economy and subdued near-term inflation, others argued in favor of holding steady at 2.75% to better assess the evolving trade environment, especially with US tariffs in flux.

                        All members acknowledged the unusually high level of uncertainty. They agreed to be “less forward-looking than usual,” signaling a preference for data-dependence over proactive policy signaling.

                        The Council framed the current risks in two layers: the unpredictable path of U.S. trade policy, and the unknown economic impact of tariffs—including potential fiscal responses to soften the blow.

                        With no clear resolution on either front, the BoC leaned toward caution, holding policy steady at 2.75% while signaling a readiness to adjust as needed.

                        Full BoC summary of deliberations here.

                        US core PCE inflation cools to 2.6%, spending remains resilient

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          US core PCE price index, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in flat on a monthly basis in March, undershooting expectations of 0.1% mom rise. Headline PCE index was also flat, matched expectations.

                          On a year-over-year basis, core PCE inflation eased from 3.0% to 2.6%, offering some reassurance that underlying price pressures are gradually moderating. Headline PCE inflation also slowed from 2.7% to 2.3% yoy, slightly above expectation of 2.2%.

                          Meanwhile, consumers continue to spend. Personal income rose 0.5% mom, outpacing forecasts of 0.6% mom. Spending jumped 0.7% mom above expectation of 0.6% mom, led by solid increases in both goods and services.

                          Full US Personal Income and Outlays release here.

                          Canada’s GDP contracts -0.2% mom in Feb, weakness broad-based across sectors

                            By
                            ActionForex.com
                            -

                            Canada’s economy unexpectedly shrank by -0.2% mom in February, missing expectations of flat growth, as a broad-based downturn weighed on output.

                            Goods-producing sectors led the decline with a -0.6% mom drop, particularly from mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, as well as construction.

                            Sservices sector also edged lower by -0.1% mom, dragged down by transportation, warehousing, and real estate

                            12 out of 20 industrial sectors posting declines.

                            Looking ahead, preliminary data suggests a modest rebound of 0.1% mom in March, led by gains in mining, retail trade, and transportation.

                            Full Canada’s GDP release here.

                            US GDP shrinks -0.3% annualized in Q1, price pressures building up

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
                              -

                              The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the Q1, with GDP shrinking at an annualized rate of -0.3%, marking the first decline since Q2 2022 and falling well short of expectations for modest 0.4% growth.

                              The surprise contraction was driven by a surge in imports and a pullback in government spending, which more than offset gains in investment, consumer spending, and exports.

                              Compounding the disappointing headline figure, inflation pressures showed renewed strength. The GDP price index jumped to 3.7% yoy, significantly above the 3.1% yoy forecast and accelerating from 2.3% yoy in Q4.

                              Full US GDP release here.

                              US ADP jobs rise just 62k in Apr, well below expectations

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                US ADP private sector employment rose by just 62k in April, sharply missing expectations of a 130k increase and marking a notable slowdown in hiring.

                                Gains were split between goods-producing industries, which added 26k jobs, and service-providing sectors, which contributed 34k. By establishment size, medium-sized firms led with 40k new jobs, while small and large businesses added 11k and 12k, respectively.

                                Pay trends were mixed. Job-stayers saw wage growth slow slightly to 4.5% yoy. Job-changers experienced an uptick in pay increases from 6.7% yoy to 6.9% yoy.

                                ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson described the tone as one of “unease,” as employers balance strong economic signals against growing uncertainty tied to fiscal policy and consumer sentiment.

                                Full US ADP release here.

                                Eurozone GDP beats expectation of 0.4% qoq growth, EU up 0.3% qoq

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.4% qoq in Q1, doubling market expectations of 0.2% and signaling a stronger-than-anticipated start to the year. Across the broader EU, GDP rose by 0.3% qoq.

                                  On a year-on-year basis, seasonally adjusted GDP grew 1.2% in the Eurozone and 1.4% in the EU, matching growth rates from the previous quarter.

                                  Ireland led the regional performance with a sharp 3.2% quarterly increase, followed by Spain and Lithuania with 0.6% growth. Hungary was the only member state to post a quarterly contraction, down -0.2%.

                                  Full Eurozone GDP release here.

                                  Swiss KOF falls to 97.1, outlook considerably subdued

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer slumped to 97.1 in April, down sharply from 103.9 and well below the expected 102.0, marking its first drop below the medium-term average this year.

                                    The KOF Swiss Economic Institute noted that the outlook for the Swiss economy is now “considerably subdued,” as broad-based weakness weighed on the indicator.

                                    According to KOF, the sharp deterioration was primarily driven by a significant setback in manufacturing sentiment, with additional pressure seen across the hospitality and broader services sectors. Financial and insurance services were the only areas showing relative stability.

                                    Full Swiss KOF release here.

                                    China’s factory activity slumps on trade conflicts, optimism near record lows

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      China’s factory activity slumped sharply in April as official NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.5 to 49.0, its lowest level since December 2023 and below expectations of 49.9. Non-manufacturing PMI also weakened from 50.8 to 50.4.

                                      The decline points to early signs of strain from escalating trade tensions, with NBS citing “sharp changes in the external environment” as a key driver.

                                      Private-sector data painted a similarly cautious picture. Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.4, its lowest in three months and just narrowly remaining in expansion.

                                      Caixin’s Senior Economist Wang Zhe noted that while production and demand grew modestly, the pace has slowed and forward-looking optimism weakened significantly—plunging to the third-lowest level ever recorded. Trade-related uncertainty was a key concern for firms, weighing heavily on sentiment despite hopes for more policy support.

                                      The April PMIs point to early-stage fallout from the China-US tariff standoff. Businesses are already reporting shrinking employment, delayed logistics, and inventory drawdowns. With both consumer and business confidence faltering, the government faces growing pressure to deploy stimulus measures. Unless domestic demand recovers and external risks subside, China’s economy could face more headwinds in Q2 and beyond.

                                      Full China’s Caixin PMI manufacturing release here.

                                      Australia’s trimmed mean CPI returns to RBA’s target band, services inflation eases further

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        Australia’s headline CPI was unchanged at 2.4% yoy in Q1, above expectations of a slight decline to 2.2% yoy. On a quarterly basis, CPI rose 0.9% qoq, also exceeding forecast of 0.8% qoq.

                                        The closely watched trimmed mean CPI, a core inflation gauge, slowed from 3.3% yoy to 2.9% yoy , falling back within RBA’s 2–3% target range for the first time since 2021, in line with market expectations. However, the quarterly increase of 0.7% qoq was a touch higher than the anticipated 0.6% qoq.

                                        Annual goods inflation accelerated from 0.8% yoy to 1.3% yoy, driven by a notable rebound in electricity prices. Services inflation eased from 4.3% yoy to 3.7% yoy, its lowest since mid-2022, amid broad-based moderation in rent and insurance costs.

                                        Full Australia quarterly CPI release here.

                                        NZ ANZ business confidence falls to 49.3, inflation expectations steady

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence fell sharply in April, dropping from 57.5 to 49.3. The own activity outlook also edged lower from 48.6 to 47.7.

                                          ANZ noted the decline may reflect growing apprehension over the global economic outlook, particularly uncertainty stemming from the escalating US-China trade war and broader policy unpredictability from the US administration.

                                          Cost expectations three months ahead surged from 74.1 to 77.9, the highest level since September 2023. This contrasts with a slight dip in pricing intentions, which eased from 51.3 to 49.4. Inflation expectations one year out remained largely steady at 2.65%.

                                          Full ANZ business confidence release here.

                                          Load more

                                          ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for over a decade. Empowering the individual traders was, is, and will always be our motto going forward.

                                          Contact us: contact@actionforex.com

                                          © ActionForex.com © 2025 All rights reserved.